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Europa League · League phase, matchday 8Thursday 28 January · 20:00 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Leverkusen2nd place
OL 37%X 22%B04 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 92 points on the European rating.
  • The Bundesliga average is 62 points above the Ligue 1 average.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.71X22%4.55241%2.43
Double chance
1X59%1.70X263%1.581278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Leverkusen1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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