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Championship · Matchday 37Saturday 13 March · 15:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Derby County23rd place
WAT 42%X 28%DER 30%

Prediction

  • If Watford score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Watford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.36X28%3.57230%3.39
Double chance
1X70%1.42X258%1.741272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

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Head to head

Watford – Derby County21 February 20262-0
Derby County – Watford22 November 20252-3
Derby County – Watford18 January 20250-2
Watford – Derby County24 August 20242-1