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Eredivisie · Matchday 11Saturday 31 October · 20:00 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Full time1-0Prediction correct
AZ Alkmaar5th place
AJA 43%X 27%AZ 31%

What does the market say?

AjaxDrawAZ AlkmaarRinvalo43%27%31%
Market57%21%22%

✓ Agree · both back Ajax

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
  • If Ajax score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Ajax win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.35X27%3.72231%3.27
Double chance
1X69%1.44X257%1.741273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.33BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-0 probability 7.5% · final score

Form

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AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Ajax – AZ Alkmaar31 October 20261-0
AZ Alkmaar – Ajax8 February 20261-1
Ajax – AZ Alkmaar18 October 20250-2
Ajax – AZ Alkmaar16 March 20252-2
AZ Alkmaar – Ajax8 December 20242-1
AZ Alkmaar – Ajax25 February 20242-0