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Eredivisie · Matchday 11Sunday 1 November · 13:30 · 711 Stadion
Telstar16th place
Full time4-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Utrecht12th place
TEL 30%X 26%UTR 44%

What does the market say?

TelstarDrawUtrechtRinvalo30%26%44%
Market34%25%41%

✓ Agree · both back Utrecht

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Utrecht lead by 61 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Utrecht -0.1, Telstar -0.8.
  • If Telstar score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.556%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Utrecht win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.36X26%3.79244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X270%1.421274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Telstar · Columns: Utrecht4-2 probability 0.8% · final score

Form

Compare →
TelstarLDLLW
UtrechtLWWDL

Head to head

Telstar – Utrecht1 November 20264-2
Utrecht – Telstar11 April 20264-1
Telstar – Utrecht23 November 20251-1