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Eredivisie · Matchday 11Sunday 1 November · 15:45 · Euroborg
Groningen8th place
Full time2-3Prediction wrong
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
GRO 57%X 24%SPA 19%

What does the market say?

GroningenDrawSparta RotterdamRinvalo57%24%19%
Market53%23%24%

✓ Agree · both back Groningen

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Groningen lead by 105 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Groningen -0.2, Sparta Rotterdam -0.7.
  • If Groningen score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Over 2.554%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Groningen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.76X24%4.10219%5.30
Double chance
1X81%1.23X243%2.311276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.19BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Groningen · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam2-3 probability 1.6% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Groningen – Sparta Rotterdam1 November 20262-3
Sparta Rotterdam – Groningen31 January 20262-0
Groningen – Sparta Rotterdam19 October 20250-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Groningen2 February 20251-0
Groningen – Sparta Rotterdam9 November 20241-0
Groningen – Sparta Rotterdam28 May 20230-5