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Eredivisie · Matchday 11Saturday 31 October · 17:45 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen7th place
Full time1-0Prediction correct
NEC Nijmegen13th place
HEE 40%X 27%NEC 33%

What does the market say?

HeerenveenDrawNEC NijmegenRinvalo40%27%33%
Market45%24%31%

✓ Agree · both back Heerenveen

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Heerenveen take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.5
Over 2.561%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.47X27%3.77233%3.03
Double chance
1X67%1.49X260%1.681273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.561%1.64Under 2.539%2.56BTTS yes63%1.58BTTS no37%2.73

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-0 probability 6.4% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Heerenveen – NEC Nijmegen31 October 20261-0
NEC Nijmegen – Heerenveen22 March 20262-2
Heerenveen – NEC Nijmegen21 September 20253-2
Heerenveen – NEC Nijmegen27 April 20251-0
NEC Nijmegen – Heerenveen19 October 20243-0
NEC Nijmegen – Heerenveen10 March 20242-0