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Eredivisie · Matchday 11Saturday 31 October · 17:45 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
Full time7-0Rinvalo's pick: 4-0✓ Result correct
Willem II18th place
PSV 89%X 8%WIL 3%

What does the market say?

PSV EindhovenDrawWillem IIRinvalo89%8%3%
Market87%8%5%

✓ Agree · both back PSV Eindhoven

Prediction

Predicted: 4-0
Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 420 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.2, Willem II -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: PSV Eindhoven 2.4 points per game, Willem II 0.4.
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 95% of the time
  • If Willem II score first, they win 13% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals4.2 – 1.0
Over 2.589%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score4-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
189%1.13X8%11.9623%35.34
Double chance
1X97%1.03X211%8.941292%1.09
Goals
Over 2.589%1.12Under 2.511%9.18BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.62

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PSV Eindhoven · Columns: Willem II7-0 probability 0.0% · final score

Form

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Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – Willem II31 October 20267-0
PSV Eindhoven – Willem II8 February 20251-1
Willem II – PSV Eindhoven28 September 20240-2
PSV Eindhoven – Willem II1 May 20224-2
Willem II – PSV Eindhoven25 September 20212-1