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Eredivisie · Matchday 20Saturday 23 January · 15:30 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Telstar16th place
AJA 71%X 19%TEL 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 209 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Telstar -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, Telstar 0.8.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Telstar score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.9
Over 2.565%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
171%1.41X19%5.40211%9.43
Double chance
1X89%1.12X229%3.431281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.85BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Telstar2-0 probability 10.6%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW
TelstarLDLLW

Head to head

Telstar – Ajax30 August 20260-4
Telstar – Ajax11 January 20262-3
Ajax – Telstar10 August 20252-0