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Eredivisie · Matchday 20Sunday 24 January · 13:30 · Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen13th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Willem II18th place
NEC 76%X 16%WIL 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • NEC Nijmegen lead by 243 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: NEC Nijmegen -0.1, Willem II -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: NEC Nijmegen 0.8 points per game, Willem II 0.0.
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Willem II score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.0 – 1.0
Over 2.575%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
176%1.32X16%6.3528%12.09
Double chance
1X92%1.09X224%4.161284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.575%1.33Under 2.525%4.06BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.51

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: NEC Nijmegen · Columns: Willem II2-0 probability 8.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Willem II – NEC Nijmegen15 August 20261-4
NEC Nijmegen – Willem II3 May 20251-1
Willem II – NEC Nijmegen22 December 20244-1
Willem II – NEC Nijmegen22 December 20210-1
NEC Nijmegen – Willem II12 September 20210-0