TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Eredivisie · Matchday 20Sunday 24 January · 15:45 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Utrecht12th place
AZ 57%X 24%UTR 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Utrecht -0.6.
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 64 rating points.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.76X24%4.16219%5.21
Double chance
1X81%1.24X243%2.311276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Utrecht1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Utrecht – AZ Alkmaar15 August 20261-4
Utrecht – AZ Alkmaar1 March 20262-0
AZ Alkmaar – Utrecht26 October 20254-1
Utrecht – AZ Alkmaar18 January 20250-0
AZ Alkmaar – Utrecht29 September 20241-2
AZ Alkmaar – Utrecht19 May 20243-3