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Premier League · Matchday 25Wednesday 10 February · 20:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Bournemouth7th place
AVL 33%X 28%BOU 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bournemouth 0.5, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.00X28%3.61239%2.57
Double chance
1X61%1.64X267%1.501272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Bournemouth1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bournemouth – Aston Villa7 February 20261-1
Aston Villa – Bournemouth9 November 20254-0
Bournemouth – Aston Villa10 May 20250-1
Aston Villa – Bournemouth26 October 20241-1
Aston Villa – Bournemouth21 April 20243-1
Bournemouth – Aston Villa3 December 20232-2