TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 25Wednesday 10 February · 20:00 · St James Park
Newcastle United13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Chelsea4th place
NEW 35%X 27%CHE 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Chelsea 0.0, Newcastle United -0.7.
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.560%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.88X27%3.65238%2.64
Double chance
1X62%1.61X265%1.531273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.50BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.70

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Newcastle United14 March 20260-1
Newcastle United – Chelsea20 December 20252-2
Newcastle United – Chelsea11 May 20252-0
Chelsea – Newcastle United27 October 20242-1
Chelsea – Newcastle United11 March 20243-2
Newcastle United – Chelsea25 November 20234-1