TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Milan5th place
ATA 32%X 28%MIL 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 69 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Atalanta 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Atalanta -0.5.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.552%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.12X28%3.64240%2.47
Double chance
1X60%1.68X268%1.471273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.552%1.92Under 2.548%2.09BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Atalanta18 October 20263-2
Milan – Atalanta10 May 20262-3
Atalanta – Milan28 October 20251-1
Milan – Atalanta20 April 20250-1
Atalanta – Milan6 December 20242-1
Milan – Atalanta25 February 20241-1