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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 17:30 · Stadio Ennio Tardini
Parma18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Lazio1st place
PAR 18%X 25%LAZ 58%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 230 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Parma 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lazio 0.5, Parma -0.7.
  • If Parma score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 83% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.6
Over 2.543%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
118%5.70X25%4.03258%1.74
Double chance
1X42%2.36X282%1.211275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.543%2.35Under 2.557%1.74BTTS yes44%2.30BTTS no56%1.77

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Parma · Columns: Lazio0-1 probability 14.2%

Form

Compare →
ParmaWLLLD
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Lazio – Parma24 October 20262-1
Lazio – Parma4 April 20261-1
Parma – Lazio13 December 20250-1
Lazio – Parma28 April 20252-2
Parma – Lazio1 December 20243-1