TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Bologna9th place
MON 25%X 25%BOL 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bologna lead by 188 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Bologna 2.4 points per game, Monza 0.6.
  • Bologna take 2.1 points per game away.
  • If Monza score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Bologna score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.559%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Bologna win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.05X25%3.96250%2.00
Double chance
1X50%2.00X275%1.331275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.45BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Bologna1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
BolognaWLWWW

Head to head

Bologna – Monza31 October 20262-1
Bologna – Monza18 January 20253-1
Monza – Bologna22 September 20241-2
Bologna – Monza13 April 20240-0
Monza – Bologna28 September 20230-0
Bologna – Monza12 February 20230-1