TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Lecce14th place
ROM 75%X 17%LEC 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 291 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Lecce 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Lecce -0.6.
  • If Roma score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 31% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.6
Over 2.556%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
175%1.33X17%5.8628%12.48
Double chance
1X92%1.09X225%3.991283%1.21
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes42%2.38BTTS no58%1.72

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Lecce2-0 probability 14.3%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Lecce – Roma31 August 20260-4
Roma – Lecce22 March 20261-0
Lecce – Roma6 January 20260-2
Lecce – Roma29 March 20250-1
Roma – Lecce7 December 20244-1
Lecce – Roma1 April 20240-0