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Bundesliga · Matchday 10Sunday 22 November · 14:30 · WWK Arena
Augsburg10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Mainz9th place
FCA 42%X 26%M05 31%

What does the market say?

AugsburgDrawMainzRinvalo42%26%31%
Market37%25%38%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Augsburg 42%, market Mainz 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market differs: the away side 38%.
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.559%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Augsburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.36X26%3.81231%3.19
Double chance
1X69%1.46X258%1.731274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.46BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.63

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Augsburg · Columns: Mainz1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Augsburg7 February 20262-0
Augsburg – Mainz20 September 20251-4
Mainz – Augsburg8 February 20250-0
Augsburg – Mainz20 September 20242-3
Mainz – Augsburg17 February 20241-0
Augsburg – Mainz23 September 20232-1