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Bundesliga · Matchday 10Saturday 21 November · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Paderborn14th place
B04 67%X 21%SCP 12%

What does the market say?

LeverkusenDrawPaderbornRinvalo67%21%12%
Market75%15%9%

✓ Agree · both back Leverkusen

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 130 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.1, Paderborn -0.6.
  • The market also backs the home side (75%).
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Paderborn score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.7
Over 2.551%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.50X21%4.82212%8.02
Double chance
1X88%1.14X233%3.011279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Market 74%Under 2.549%2.02Market 26%BTTS yes45%2.23Market 59%BTTS no55%1.81Market 41%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Paderborn2-0 probability 13.2%

Form

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