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Bundesliga · Matchday 10Sunday 22 November · 16:30 · Weserstadion
Werder Bremen5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Hamburg15th place
SVW 54%X 25%HSV 20%

What does the market say?

Werder BremenDrawHamburgRinvalo54%25%20%
Market60%22%18%

✓ Agree · both back Werder Bremen

Prediction

Key factors
  • Werder Bremen lead by 69 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Werder Bremen -0.2, Hamburg -0.7.
  • Derby match.
  • The market also backs the home side (60%).
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Werder Bremen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.85X25%3.93220%4.89
Double chance
1X80%1.26X246%2.181275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Werder Bremen · Columns: Hamburg1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

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Head to head

Werder Bremen – Hamburg18 April 20263-1
Hamburg – Werder Bremen7 December 20253-2