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Bundesliga · Matchday 10Friday 20 November · 19:30 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Köln13th place
FCB 86%X 10%KOE 4%

What does the market say?

Bayern MunichDrawKölnRinvalo86%10%4%
Market88%8%4%

✓ Agree · both back Bayern Munich

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 352 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Köln -0.1.
  • Last 5 games: Bayern Munich 2.2 points per game, Köln 1.0.
  • The market also backs the home side (88%).
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Köln score first, they win 16% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.8 – 0.9
Over 2.585%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
186%1.16X10%9.9324%25.84
Double chance
1X96%1.04X214%7.171290%1.11
Goals
Over 2.585%1.18Market 83%Under 2.515%6.68Market 17%BTTS yes60%1.67Market 52%BTTS no40%2.49Market 48%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Köln3-0 probability 8.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bayern Munich – Köln16 May 20265-1
Köln – Bayern Munich14 January 20261-3
Bayern Munich – Köln13 April 20242-0
Köln – Bayern Munich24 November 20230-1
Köln – Bayern Munich27 May 20231-2
Bayern Munich – Köln24 January 20231-1