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Bundesliga · Matchday 10Saturday 21 November · 14:30 · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
RB Leipzig4th place
FCU 21%X 24%RBL 55%

What does the market say?

Union BerlinDrawRB LeipzigRinvalo21%24%55%
Market23%22%55%

✓ Agree · both back RB Leipzig

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 164 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Union Berlin -0.2.
  • The market also backs the away side (55%).
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.81X24%4.19255%1.81
Double chance
1X45%2.24X279%1.261276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

RB Leipzig – Union Berlin24 April 20263-1
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig12 December 20253-1
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig1 February 20250-0
RB Leipzig – Union Berlin14 September 20240-0
RB Leipzig – Union Berlin4 February 20242-0
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig3 September 20230-3