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Bundesliga · Matchday 10Saturday 21 November · 14:30 · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
Elversberg7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Freiburg3rd place
SVE 29%X 26%SCF 44%

What does the market say?

ElversbergDrawFreiburgRinvalo29%26%44%
Market29%24%47%

✓ Agree · both back Freiburg

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 84 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Freiburg 0.3, Elversberg -0.7.
  • The market also backs the away side (47%).
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.9
Over 2.568%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.42X26%3.80244%2.25
Double chance
1X56%1.80X271%1.411274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.568%1.48Market 66%Under 2.532%3.10Market 34%BTTS yes68%1.47Market 65%BTTS no32%3.14Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Elversberg · Columns: Freiburg1-1 probability 9.8%

Form

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