TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 10Saturday 21 November · 14:30 · Stadion im Borussia-Park
M'gladbach18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Dortmund2nd place
BMG 20%X 24%BVB 56%

What does the market say?

M'gladbachDrawDortmundRinvalo20%24%56%
Market20%21%59%

✓ Agree · both back Dortmund

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 249 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, M'gladbach -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 1.8 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • The market also backs the away side (59%).
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.01X24%4.23256%1.77
Double chance
1X44%2.29X280%1.251276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.557%1.77Market 66%Under 2.543%2.30Market 34%BTTS yes56%1.78Market 63%BTTS no44%2.27Market 38%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: M'gladbach · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

M'gladbach – Dortmund3 May 20261-0
Dortmund – M'gladbach19 December 20252-0
Dortmund – M'gladbach20 April 20253-2
M'gladbach – Dortmund7 December 20241-1
M'gladbach – Dortmund13 April 20241-2
Dortmund – M'gladbach25 November 20234-2