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Ligue 1 · Matchday 26Saturday 3 April · 16:00 · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Auxerre13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Lens9th place
AUX 24%X 25%RCL 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens lead by 141 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lens 0.2, Auxerre -0.5.
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Lens score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.7
Over 2.555%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.14X25%3.95251%1.98
Double chance
1X49%2.02X276%1.321275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.23BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Auxerre · Columns: Lens1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →
AuxerreWLWDL
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Lens – Auxerre22 August 20265-2
Lens – Auxerre17 January 20261-0
Auxerre – Lens4 October 20251-2
Lens – Auxerre27 April 20250-4
Auxerre – Lens14 December 20242-2
Auxerre – Lens3 June 20231-3