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Ligue 1 · Matchday 26Saturday 3 April · 16:00 · Stade Marie-Marvingt
Le Mans17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Marseille6th place
LMS 23%X 23%OM 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 176 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Marseille 2.4 points per game, Le Mans 0.8.
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.3 – 2.1
Over 2.566%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.37X23%4.34254%1.85
Double chance
1X46%2.18X277%1.301277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.566%1.52Under 2.534%2.92BTTS yes65%1.55BTTS no35%2.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Mans · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 9.8%

Form

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