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Ligue 1 · Matchday 26Saturday 3 April · 16:00 · Allianz Riviera
Nice8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Lyon3rd place
NIC 29%X 27%OL 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 103 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Nice -0.4.
  • If Nice score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.50X27%3.67244%2.26
Double chance
1X56%1.79X271%1.401273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nice · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
NiceWWLWW
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Lyon – Nice18 October 20262-1
Lyon – Nice15 February 20262-0
Nice – Lyon18 October 20253-2
Nice – Lyon9 March 20250-2
Lyon – Nice1 December 20244-1
Lyon – Nice16 February 20241-0