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Ligue 1 · Matchday 26Saturday 3 April · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lorient11th place
BRE 47%X 28%LOR 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.9, Lorient -0.2.
  • If Brest score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Lorient score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Brest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.12X28%3.58225%4.00
Double chance
1X75%1.33X253%1.891272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Lorient1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →
BrestLWDLW
LorientLWWDL

Head to head

Lorient – Brest2 November 20260-2
Brest – Lorient7 February 20262-0
Lorient – Brest19 October 20253-3
Lorient – Brest31 March 20240-1
Brest – Lorient20 December 20234-0
Lorient – Brest7 May 20232-1