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Bundesliga · Matchday 16Tuesday 12 January · 19:30 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-1High confidence
Leverkusen6th place
FCB 80%X 13%B04 7%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 198 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Leverkusen 0.1.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 22% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.4 – 1.1
Over 2.583%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score3-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.25X13%7.5427%15.08
Double chance
1X93%1.07X220%5.031287%1.15
Goals
Over 2.583%1.21Under 2.517%5.80BTTS yes64%1.55BTTS no36%2.81

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Leverkusen3-1 probability 8.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leverkusen – Bayern Munich14 March 20261-1
Bayern Munich – Leverkusen1 November 20253-0
Leverkusen – Bayern Munich15 February 20250-0
Bayern Munich – Leverkusen28 September 20241-1
Leverkusen – Bayern Munich10 February 20243-0
Bayern Munich – Leverkusen15 September 20232-2