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Bundesliga · Matchday 16Tuesday 12 January · 19:30 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Hamburg15th place
SCF 59%X 24%HSV 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 125 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Freiburg 0.3, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.556%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.68X24%4.18217%5.98
Double chance
1X83%1.20X241%2.461276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: Hamburg1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →
HamburgWWWLL

Head to head

Hamburg – Freiburg10 May 20263-2
Freiburg – Hamburg10 January 20262-1