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Bundesliga · Matchday 16Tuesday 12 January · 19:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Werder Bremen5th place
S04 24%X 28%SVW 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Werder Bremen 2.2 points per game, Schalke 04 0.4.
  • Werder Bremen lead by 96 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Werder Bremen -0.2, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.4
Over 2.539%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.16X28%3.60248%2.07
Double chance
1X52%1.93X276%1.321272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.539%2.58Under 2.561%1.63BTTS yes44%2.26BTTS no56%1.79

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
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Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: Werder Bremen0-1 probability 13.7%

Form

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Head to head

Schalke 04 – Werder Bremen29 April 20232-1
Werder Bremen – Schalke 045 November 20222-1