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Bundesliga · Matchday 16Tuesday 12 January · 19:30 · RheinEnergieStadion
Köln13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Dortmund2nd place
KOE 24%X 25%BVB 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 255 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 1.8 points per game, Köln 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Köln -0.1.
  • If Köln score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.7
Over 2.554%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.15X25%3.95251%1.98
Double chance
1X49%2.02X276%1.321275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.18BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.29

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Köln · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – Dortmund7 March 20261-2
Dortmund – Köln25 October 20251-0
Köln – Dortmund20 January 20240-4
Dortmund – Köln19 August 20231-0
Dortmund – Köln18 March 20236-1
Köln – Dortmund1 October 20223-2