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Bundesliga · Matchday 16Tuesday 12 January · 19:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Hoffenheim12th place
M05 40%X 27%TSG 33%

Prediction

  • If Mainz score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.6
Over 2.564%
Both teams score66%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.50X27%3.74233%3.00
Double chance
1X67%1.50X260%1.671273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.78BTTS yes66%1.52BTTS no34%2.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Hoffenheim1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Hoffenheim – Mainz4 April 20261-2
Mainz – Hoffenheim21 November 20251-1
Hoffenheim – Mainz12 April 20252-0
Mainz – Hoffenheim1 December 20242-0
Mainz – Hoffenheim13 April 20244-1
Hoffenheim – Mainz26 November 20231-1