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Bundesliga · Matchday 26Saturday 13 March · 14:30 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-1High confidence
Mainz9th place
FCB 84%X 11%M05 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 287 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Mainz 0.4.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 19% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.6 – 1.0
Over 2.584%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score3-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
184%1.20X11%8.7025%20.12
Double chance
1X95%1.05X216%6.081289%1.13
Goals
Over 2.584%1.19Under 2.516%6.22BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.62

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Mainz3-1 probability 7.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Mainz – Bayern Munich25 April 20263-4
Bayern Munich – Mainz14 December 20252-2
Bayern Munich – Mainz26 April 20253-0
Mainz – Bayern Munich14 December 20242-1
Bayern Munich – Mainz9 March 20248-1
Mainz – Bayern Munich21 October 20231-3