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Bundesliga · Matchday 26Saturday 13 March · 14:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Hoffenheim12th place
S04 20%X 25%TSG 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 111 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.4, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.6
Over 2.545%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%4.90X25%3.94254%1.84
Double chance
1X46%2.19X280%1.261275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: Hoffenheim0-1 probability 12.7%

Form

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Head to head

Hoffenheim – Schalke 049 April 20232-0
Schalke 04 – Hoffenheim14 October 20220-3