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Bundesliga · Matchday 26Saturday 13 March · 14:30 · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Freiburg3rd place
FCU 30%X 28%SCF 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 120 rating points.
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.551%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.29X28%3.58242%2.40
Double chance
1X58%1.71X270%1.441272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.551%1.94Under 2.549%2.06BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: Freiburg1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – Union Berlin15 March 20260-1
Union Berlin – Freiburg1 November 20250-0
Freiburg – Union Berlin30 March 20251-2
Union Berlin – Freiburg8 November 20240-0
Union Berlin – Freiburg18 May 20242-1
Freiburg – Union Berlin13 January 20240-0