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Bundesliga · Matchday 26Saturday 13 March · 14:30 · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
Elversberg7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Dortmund2nd place
SVE 20%X 23%BVB 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 205 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Elversberg -0.7.
  • Dortmund take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.1
Over 2.564%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.09X23%4.29257%1.75
Double chance
1X43%2.33X280%1.241277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.76BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.61

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Elversberg · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 10.0%

Form

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