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Bundesliga · Matchday 26Saturday 13 March · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Köln13th place
B04 60%X 23%KOE 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 154 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Leverkusen 1.8 points per game, Köln 1.0.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Köln score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.2
Over 2.565%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X23%4.35217%5.73
Double chance
1X83%1.21X240%2.471277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.89BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.62

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Köln2-1 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – Leverkusen25 April 20261-2
Leverkusen – Köln13 December 20252-0
Köln – Leverkusen3 March 20240-2
Leverkusen – Köln8 October 20233-0
Leverkusen – Köln5 May 20231-2
Köln – Leverkusen9 November 20221-2