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Bundesliga · Matchday 26Saturday 13 March · 14:30 · Stadion im Borussia-Park
M'gladbach18th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Hamburg15th place
BMG 45%X 27%HSV 28%

Prediction

  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a M'gladbach win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.25X27%3.69228%3.53
Double chance
1X72%1.40X255%1.801273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: M'gladbach · Columns: Hamburg1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

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Head to head

Hamburg – M'gladbach17 January 20260-0
M'gladbach – Hamburg24 August 20250-0