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Bundesliga · Matchday 14Saturday 19 December · 14:30 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Werder Bremen5th place
FCB 84%X 11%SVW 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 274 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Werder Bremen -0.2.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 19% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.6 – 1.0
Over 2.584%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
184%1.19X11%8.8925%20.49
Double chance
1X95%1.05X216%6.201289%1.13
Goals
Over 2.584%1.19Under 2.516%6.20BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Werder Bremen3-0 probability 7.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Werder Bremen – Bayern Munich14 February 20260-3
Bayern Munich – Werder Bremen26 September 20254-0
Bayern Munich – Werder Bremen7 February 20253-0
Werder Bremen – Bayern Munich21 September 20240-5
Bayern Munich – Werder Bremen21 January 20240-1
Werder Bremen – Bayern Munich18 August 20230-4