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Bundesliga · Matchday 14Saturday 19 December · 14:30 · Red Bull Arena Leipzig
RB Leipzig4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Dortmund2nd place
RBL 45%X 26%BVB 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Dortmund 0.4.
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.556%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.21X26%3.78228%3.54
Double chance
1X72%1.39X255%1.831274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: RB Leipzig · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

RB Leipzig – Dortmund21 February 20262-2
Dortmund – RB Leipzig4 October 20251-1
RB Leipzig – Dortmund15 March 20252-0
Dortmund – RB Leipzig2 November 20242-1
RB Leipzig – Dortmund27 April 20244-1
Dortmund – RB Leipzig9 December 20232-3