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Bundesliga · Matchday 14Saturday 19 December · 14:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
M'gladbach18th place
S04 32%X 29%BMG 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: M'gladbach -0.6, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.2
Over 2.539%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a M'gladbach win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.13X29%3.45239%2.56
Double chance
1X61%1.64X268%1.471271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.539%2.58Under 2.561%1.63BTTS yes46%2.17BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: M'gladbach1-1 probability 14.2%

Form

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Head to head

M'gladbach – Schalke 044 February 20230-0
Schalke 04 – M'gladbach13 August 20222-2