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Bundesliga · Matchday 14Saturday 19 December · 14:30 · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Hoffenheim12th place
FCU 30%X 27%TSG 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 79 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.4, Union Berlin -0.2.
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Hoffenheim win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.33X27%3.67243%2.34
Double chance
1X57%1.75X270%1.431273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.557%1.77Under 2.543%2.30BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: Hoffenheim1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hoffenheim – Union Berlin31 January 20263-1
Union Berlin – Hoffenheim13 September 20252-4
Hoffenheim – Union Berlin8 February 20250-4
Union Berlin – Hoffenheim21 September 20242-1
Hoffenheim – Union Berlin17 February 20240-1
Union Berlin – Hoffenheim23 September 20230-2