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Bundesliga · Matchday 14Saturday 19 December · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Köln13th place
M05 51%X 26%KOE 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Mainz lead by 65 rating points.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Köln score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.557%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X26%3.88223%4.32
Double chance
1X77%1.30X249%2.041274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.34BTTS yes58%1.71BTTS no42%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Köln1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – Mainz17 January 20262-1
Mainz – Köln24 August 20250-1
Mainz – Köln28 April 20241-1
Köln – Mainz10 December 20230-0
Köln – Mainz15 April 20231-1
Mainz – Köln21 October 20225-0