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Bundesliga · Matchday 14Saturday 19 December · 14:30 · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
Elversberg7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Hamburg15th place
SVE 44%X 27%HSV 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Elversberg take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.5
Over 2.564%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Elversberg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.27X27%3.76229%3.42
Double chance
1X71%1.41X256%1.791273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.75BTTS yes65%1.54BTTS no35%2.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Elversberg · Columns: Hamburg1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

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