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Championship · Matchday 39Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Bolton Wanderers19th place
BUR 59%X 23%BOL 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Burnley lead by 119 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Burnley -0.2, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • If Burnley score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.559%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Burnley win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.69X23%4.28217%5.75
Double chance
1X83%1.21X241%2.451277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.45BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Bolton Wanderers1-1 probability 10.5%

Form

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