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Championship · Matchday 39Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Charlton Athletic20th place
SOU 72%X 18%CHA 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 265 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Charlton Athletic 0.4.
  • Southampton take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
172%1.38X18%5.4229%11.01
Double chance
1X91%1.10X228%3.631282%1.23
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes44%2.25BTTS no56%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Charlton Athletic2-0 probability 13.6%

Form

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Head to head

Southampton – Charlton Athletic21 February 20261-1
Charlton Athletic – Southampton22 November 20251-5