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Championship · Matchday 39Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Portsmouth11th place
WAT 31%X 29%POR 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Portsmouth lead by 119 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Portsmouth 2.2 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Portsmouth 0.1, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Portsmouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.23X29%3.46240%2.49
Double chance
1X60%1.67X269%1.451271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.544%2.28Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes50%1.99BTTS no50%2.01

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Portsmouth1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Watford – Portsmouth21 January 20261-1
Portsmouth – Watford1 October 20252-2
Portsmouth – Watford21 April 20251-0
Watford – Portsmouth26 December 20242-1