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Championship · Matchday 19Sunday 6 December · 12:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Preston North End24th place
BUR 59%X 25%PNE 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Burnley lead by 185 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Burnley 1.0 points per game, Preston North End 0.2.
  • If Burnley score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Preston North End score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.551%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Burnley win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.70X25%4.08217%6.01
Double chance
1X83%1.20X241%2.431275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Preston North End1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Preston North End – Burnley15 February 20250-0
Burnley – Preston North End5 October 20240-0
Burnley – Preston North End11 February 20233-0
Preston North End – Burnley13 September 20221-1