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Championship · Matchday 19Saturday 5 December · 15:00 · The Valley
Charlton Athletic20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Birmingham City6th place
CHA 22%X 27%BIR 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 163 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Charlton Athletic 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Charlton Athletic -0.6.
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.5
Over 2.542%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.48X27%3.73251%1.97
Double chance
1X49%2.03X278%1.291273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.542%2.36Under 2.558%1.73BTTS yes46%2.16BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Charlton Athletic · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Charlton Athletic – Birmingham City7 March 20261-0
Birmingham City – Charlton Athletic13 December 20251-1