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Championship · Matchday 19Saturday 5 December · 12:30 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Derby County23rd place
MID 74%X 17%DER 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 200 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 90% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
174%1.36X17%5.7229%11.45
Double chance
1X91%1.10X226%3.811283%1.21
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes46%2.18BTTS no54%1.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Derby County2-0 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Derby County – Middlesbrough1 January 20261-0
Middlesbrough – Derby County29 November 20252-1
Middlesbrough – Derby County1 March 20251-0
Derby County – Middlesbrough17 August 20241-0
Middlesbrough – Derby County12 February 20224-1
Derby County – Middlesbrough21 August 20210-0